How it works

How we find the edge.

Better decisions begin with better information. Here is the whole process, from the moment a line is posted to the moment we tell you whether it is worth your money.

The challenge

Sportsbooks post lines.

Every sportsbook sees the game differently. The same matchup, priced a dozen different ways — and none of them agree.

  • Book A-3.5
  • Book B-4
  • Book C-2.5
  • Book D-3
  • Book E-4.5
  • Book F-2
  • Book G-3.5
  • Book H-4
  1. Our approach

    We turn the slate into a number.

    Thousands of simulations run across every variable, so we are never reading the market — we are answering it with a projected outcome we built ourselves.

  2. Step one

    Simulate.

    We run thousands of simulations on each matchup — team performance, pace, efficiency, availability, and game conditions. Every plausible version of the game gets played.

    10,000+

    Simulations per matchup

    • Team performance
    • Pace
    • Efficiency
    • Availability
    • Game conditions
  3. Step two

    Project.

    Our model turns those outcomes into a projected spread, total, and win probability — one clean number per market.

  4. Step three

    Compare.

    We compare our projection against the current sportsbook line to measure exactly where the market disagrees. That distance is the edge.

    Sportsbook line-3.5
    Gap2.5
    ETL projected line-1.0
  5. Step four

    Recommend.

    We surface the strongest opportunities across the slate and recommend: Pass, Lean, or Bet. When no meaningful edge exists, we say so.

    PassNo edge
    LeanSmall edge
    BetStrong edge
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